OEM In The Media - Press Releases:

Hurricane Earl and Long Island: Preparation, Plans

ByLong Island Press on September 2nd, 2010

bySpencer Rumsey, Lindsay Christ, Timothy Bolger and Christopher Twarowski

Imagine:The Atlantic Ocean extends north of Sunrise Highway, engulfing sections of the Southern State Parkway in some areas on the South Shore. Montauk Point and other communities along the North and South Fork are new islands. All bridges and tunnels in the New York Metropolitan area are closed. New York City’s transit system has ground to a halt. The Hudson and East rivers meet, splitting Manhattan into two separate islands. The Long Island Rail Road is shut down. Law enforcement and emergency services hole up indoors, or underground, unable to respond immediately to unfolding events and emergency calls. Countless fallen trees block roads, destroy homes and collapse power and communication lines. More than 1 million are without electricity. There are hundreds dead and more than a trillion dollars in damages.

National weather experts, emergency management officials, and the latest projections, such as recently updated flood maps, warn this is but a glimpse of the reality in store for Long Island and our region should we be hit with a major hurricane. And the grim reality is, we’re overdue.

It’s been five years since Hurricane Katrina decimated New Orleans and parts of the Gulf Coast, with much of that region still in ruins from the blow. Now, at the height of the 2010 Atlantic Hurricane Season, weather experts warn our region is overdue for a major hurricane and predict a more active season than normal.The Weather Channel’s top hurricane expert recently ranked New York City second in its “Top Five Hurricane Vulnerable and Overdue Cities,” runner-up only to Miami. That means Long Island—pummeled in 1938 by perhaps the most notorious hurricane to strike New England, “The Long Island Express,” a Category 3—is at equally severe risk. With the first major hurricane of this season, powerful Category 4 Hurricane Earl, churning its way north along the Eastern Seaboard as of press time—and the similarly threatening Tropical Storm Fiona thrashing closely behind—Long Island prepares for the worst.

“We could be hit with a double-whammy here,” warnedSuffolk County Executive Steve Levyat a hastily assembled Aug. 30 press conference to inform the public on the potential ramifications, “a storm at the beginning of Labor Day weekend, to be followed with another storm right after that.

“This is running the same route that we saw with Hurricane Bob back in 1991,” he cautioned—referring to a storm that resulted in more than half a million Suffolk County residents without power for about a week. “There is a great deal of damage that can come about from such a hurricane.”

He stressed to thePress: “We want the residents to take this seriously. Know where your shelters are, especially if you live on the South Shore of the Island. Make sure you have a place to go if you have to evacuate your home. Make sure that you have necessary first-aid available.”

As of press time, more than 1,000 workers from throughout the state have begun converging on LI to help theLong Island Power Authority(LIPA) restore electricity should Earl knock out power. The Weather Channel has stationed correspondents on Suffolk’s East End. TheFederal Emergency Management Agency(FEMA) has teams either on standby or on the ground, ready to assist, at potentially affected states. A hurricane watch and warning is expected to be issued by theNational Weather Servicefor LI, currently under tropical storm watch.

Nassau County Office of Emergency Management (OEM) Commissioner James J. Callahan III, at his desk within the County's underground emergency OPS center (above).

Yet regardless of whether Earl or Fiona make impact or not, weather and emergency management experts stress it’s not a matter of if a major blast will strike Long Island, but rather when.

Prepared for the Worst

The unassuming building’s cobblestone façade and chipped, peeling paint of the outer sign demarkingSuffolk County’s Office of Emergency Management(OEM) in Yaphank belies the facility’s critically vital importance. For it’s here, housed in an underground bunker encased within 14-inch thick walls, where the crucial, life-saving decisions will be made and implemented should the county and its 1.5 million residents face any variation of disaster: manmade or natural.

Goliath maps and charts plaster the walls. Some break down the county by town, village and street. Others outline flood and impact zones in the event of Category 1 through 5 hurricanes. Another tracks the path of Earl and Fiona, updated constantly with color-sequenced stickers. Projector screens and televisions hang from the ceiling. More than 50 work stations equipped with computers and phones stand at the ready in a sort of Doomsday control room, Suffolk’s Emergency Operations Center. Each console bears the name of the various agencies manning them, from local, state to federal.

The bunker has video satellite interface capability. Backup generators. Two mobile command vehicles. Even a portable antennae tower, should its main one be knocked out. In a crisis situation, such as a major hurricane making landfall, Levy himself would join the myriad of planners and emergency responders down here.

Nassau’s OEM center, presently situated in an underground “bunker” but slated to relocate to the recently opened Morrelly Homeland Security Center in Bethpage, is equally fortified and equipped (personnel are required to undergo a bone scan to even gain access). A similar scene would unfold there, too—withNassau County Executive Ed Manganoholding court—should a disaster such as a major hurricane making landfall arise.

In addition to Suffolk’s Emergency Management Office, itsDepartment of Fire, Rescue & Emergency Servicesis also housed in its complex. So is its communications center, an enhanced and reverse 911 facility—equipped to pinpoint the exact locations of callers, or notify residents en masse with lightning speed and precision, respectively. Dispatchers handle fire and EMS calls and coordinate units. They respond to myriad emergency calls and situations from here, 24/7, on a daily basis, regularly.

Yet things have been less than regular in the past several days.

“We’ve activated our 120-hour plan,” Suffolk OEM Commissioner Joseph Williams told the Press on the morning of Aug. 30 in his office at the facility—referring to a series of meetings, discussions, strategizing and planning sessions whereby his office runs down a comprehensive emergency “checklist” in preparation of an event, in this case, Hurricane Earl.

Suffolk OEM is making sure all the emergency generators are fueled, he says. They’ve already notified the police department and the county’s Department of Public Works to get more four-wheel-drive vehicles up and running. They’ve been setting up meetings with the American Red Cross, mobilizing additional manpower, and taking inventory of all their resources to identify what they have on hand and what they need. Suffolk OEM has also been communicating with other emergency agencies, such as theNew York State Office of Emergency Management(NYSOEM), about “pre-disaster resources.”

The ultimate response to Earl and other potential disasters is the fruit of a complex, multi-layered process requiring precision coordination between myriad local, state and federal agencies. (In fact, our interview was cut short in order for Williams to join the NYSOEM, FEMA, and more than a dozen others on an emergency conference call about the storm.)

“We operate as a region,” he explained several minutes before the call. “We have very close ties with Nassau County, New York City, Westchester County, even New Jersey. We realize that we’re all in this together and we work as a team.”

Williams, who’s held his present title for the past six years and has more than 40 years’ experience in emergency services—joining theValley Stream Fire Departmentat 17, also serving as an officer in theNew York City Fire Department, among other positions—says a slew of new programs started in Suffolk in the wake of Katrina will also be utilized.

A fleet of “shelter buses” will pick up and transport residents in need of refuge to activated locations within Suffolk’s 121-shelter network, he explains. The buses will travel along pre-existing bus routes to ease confusion and accessibility. Another program in place, called JEEP—short forJoint Emergency Evacuation Program—will aid senior citizens who may need additional help. These residents have already filled out contact forms with the county listing their ailments and specific conditions. They will be contacted, and if requested, a police officer will visit them to assess what type of additional assistance they require, and take them to a shelter.

Suffolk County will also have several “Pet-Friendly Shelters” set up, where residents can stay, along with their pets. These will be established at theSuffolk County Sports Parkin Central Islip,Suffolk County Fire Academyin Yaphank, andSuffolk County Community College’s Selden and Riverhead campuses, according toSuffolk County Society for the Prevention of Cruelty to AnimalsChief Roy Gross.

“This all occurred after Katrina,” explains Gross. “There are people that stayed in harm’s way because they would not abandon their animals and the shelters were not allowed to take animals. So people wouldn’t leave them. I know I wouldn’t. It’s like leaving your kids behind. And most people are like that—that’s part of their family.”

Suffolk County OEM Commissioner Joseph Williams at Yaphank's OPS command center.

“We’re going to treat [Earl] as a Category 1, Category 2 hurricane,” Williams continued. “If it does make the turn [further west], we can always back off on it. But as a precaution we have to do that. Our main concern here, for hurricanes, is Fire Island.”

As of press time, Williams had not given the order to begin evacuation efforts of the 32-mile barrier island, which was all but decimated in 1938. An armada of ferries would transport islanders—or at least, those who heed the call—off.

“We still have a certain amount of people who want to have their hurricane parties,” he said, half laughing. “We’ll tell them, ‘During the height of the storm, something happens, we can’t get back to help you. We’ll see you after the storm. So, if you’re going to stay, you’re there on your own.”

Yet as tough as it is to convince Labor Day party-goers on Fire Island to leave their expensive apocalypse shindigs, he explains, evacuating the rest of the affected communities is more of a fantasy.

“It’s virtually almost impossible to evacuate Long Island, especially Suffolk County,” he said.

That sentiment is reiterated by Dennis Malhowsky, director of public information for the division ofNew York State Office of Homeland Securityand Emergency Services: “Everybody knows you cannot evacuate Long Island.”

It’s a foreboding reality wrapped inside an ominous situation—and it’s one also shared by emergency management personnel in Nassau.

End of the World

Inside Nassau’s fortress-like, subterranean Emergency Operations Center, rows and rows of numbered empty cubicles—enough for 36 people—stand ready along white cinder-block walls. An array of flat-topped desks faces a mammoth screen displaying weather information and updated reports that are disseminated to hundreds of people throughout the county. They’re flanked by other television screens tuned to various channels. The entire space is carpeted in blue with a drop ceiling for recessed lighting.

It’s no doubt far more comfortable than the cramped basement quarters of Winston Churchill’s war room, where he and his generals plotted the defense of England. Here, in what is arguably the most secure spot in the entire county, nobody’s going to bump their head on a low-hanging pipe if things are exploding outside. At the moment, the mood here is practiced calm.

“Abandon hope all ye who enter here,” reads a sign above a doorway.

Staffers are getting ready for an afternoon staff meeting to discuss the hurricanes and tropical storms already on the move across the Atlantic, James J. Callahan III,Nassau’s Office of Emergency Management(OEM) commissioner, tells the Press.

At 42, there’s a touch of gray in his hair but not much evidence that the stress of the job has taken its toll. He radiates efficiency and good humor. Callahan, who’s also the deputy mayor of Malverne as well as its fire commissioner, has been in charge of this facility for four years, and now he’s preparing to relocate the office to its brand new headquarters in Bethpage. He expects to be there in a month, and retain this facility as a “hot backup,” ready just in case. The new location is larger, and promises more regional cooperation with other agencies that can share the space with them when necessary.

On the door to his office, OEM magnets spell out S.O.S. Lying atop a nearby filing cabinet is an orange and red Vulcan-model Nerf gun.

“When you deal with the end of the world all the time—because that’s what we plan for—you have to have fun in this business or otherwise you would go insane,” he says.

After a discussion on flood zones, evacuation routes, shelter preparation, food and water distribution, as well as manpower allocation, one comes away with the sense that this man—a father of four who also has a law degree as well as extensive training in handling emergencies—is the guy you want making the tough calls when the weather gets rough.

A house floats in Westhampton Bay, Feb. 25, 1993, a victim of last December's nor'easter storm. The storm created an inlet, upper left, named Pike's Inlet, which is widening daily. It destroyed many homes and beach areas prompting a Long Island Coastal Conference to be held in June, in an attempt to save areas in danger of being washed out to sea. (AP Photo/Mike Albans)

He says Katrina has taught his staff a lot, and one lesson is, you have to take care of first responders’ families, otherwise they’ll get increasingly distracted and lose their focus as they work nonstop for days on end. So Nassau OEM has helped set up special shelters to accommodate about a thousand family members in the event of an evacuation.

Regular shifts during “an event,” as they call catastrophic weather, last about 16 hours. During the downtime, staff and responders can check on their families and get reinvigorated for the daunting tasks ahead.

Looking at the history of hurricanes on Long Island, Callahan says grimly, “We’re overdue.”

His people monitor approaching storms days in advance. He explains the time table they use for moving people out of danger: For people in hospitals and those with special needs, evacuation is voluntary 48 hours before the storm’s landfall, and mandatory at 36 hours. For the general public, evacuation is voluntary at 36 hours, and mandatory at 24 hours. And those who ignore the order can be charged with a Class B misdemeanor and face up to a year in jail.

“I’m not going to arrest you,” he says. “We don’t have the manpower.”

But obeying the order to evacuate is a smart idea, he stresses, and he has the topographical maps, prepared by theU.S. Army Corps of Engineers, to prove it. Nassau’s South Shore is divided into four zones, as determined by how far inland a storm surge could go.

A Category 3 hurricane, with sustained winds more than 120 miles an hour, would bring a surge more than 20 feet high. For Long Beach Hospital, for example, this means the second floor would be underwater. So, Zone 1 is Long Beach, Zone 2 is Bellevue and Baldwin Harbor, Zone 3 goes up to Sunrise Highway, and Zone 4 extends to the Southern State.

Callahan stresses the need for residents to be aware of where the county’s emergency shelters are, should they be activated, but also stresses the need for residents to make plans in advance of potential disaster—now. The county has 25 shelters that have been pre-equipped with supplies.

Because the reality is, there’s only enough room for about 60,000 people in the general population shelters for both Nassau and Suffolk counties, with about 240,000 people living below Sunrise Highway.

Callahan’s office has set up four evacuation routes: Route 878 to Peninsula Boulevard, Long Beach Bridge to Grand Avenue, the Meadowbrook Parkway and the Seaford-Oyster Bay Expressway. All told, moving people out of those four zones could take about 27 hours, 17 if things go smoothly. And you know on Long Island, that’s a long shot, at best.

“We are prepared,” says Craig Craft, Callahan’s acting commissioner. But, he stresses, residents “will have to take an active part in their own survival!”

Long Island is no stranger to vicious storms, though it may be not at the top of most residents’ minds. Yet it was a hurricane that in fact actually shaped our geography.

Wrath of God

The Long Island Express hit on Sept. 21, 1938, unexpectedly and ferocious. The hurricane was projected to curve out to sea, but at the last minute an area of high pressure kept the storm close to the coast and moving northward. It slammed Long Island a mere six hours after it had passed North Carolina—moving at 70 mph—the fastest known forward speed for a hurricane ever recorded. Since the forward speed of a storm adds to the intensity of the wind, Eastern Long Island saw winds that exceeded 180 mph, according to historical accounts.

Compounding the devastation was the fact it hit at 3:30 p.m., a few hours before astronomical high tide, which was even higher than usual because of the Autumnal Equinox and a new moon. This produced waves between 30 and 50 feet and storm tides of 14-to-18 feet in places such as the Hamptons. The community hit hardest was Westhampton, with at least 150 houses destroyed and a storm surge that caused more than 6 feet of water to flood Main Street a mile inland. More than 50 Long Islanders were killed. The total cost of the storm for Long Island was around $6.2 million, in 1938 prices. Experts put the price tag for damage of a similarly strong storm at about $1 trillion. Twelve new inlets were also created by the storm, including the Shinnecock Inlet.

About 115 years prior, a storm christened the 1821 Norfolk and Long Island Hurricane hit New York City directly on Sept. 3. The storm, which researchers estimate was between a Category 3 and 4, caused a 13-foot storm surge. The East River and the Hudson River met across Canal Street, and buildings throughout Manhattan were destroyed or suffered wind damage.

In one storm shortly before the turn of the last century, an entire island was not as lucky to come back from the brink. A Category 2 storm in 1893, one of the last to land a direct hit on New York City, washed away a mile-long resort island off the shore of Far Rockaway known as Hog Island—a local Atlantis of sorts.

 “We’re used to structures on islands disappearing, but were not used to islands themselves disappearing,” says Nicolas K. Coch, professor of geology at CUNY Queens College.

Coch discovered the fate of the doomed island when a dredging project unearthed bar room relics of Hog Island from the ocean floor and dumped them on a newly replenished beach in 1995.

Then there was Hurricane Gloria, the last hurricane to make landfall on Long Island, in 1985. Gloria caused a considerable amount of damage and left many people without power for more than a week. Yet as bad as Gloria’s damage was, there’s a misperception among many about the storm, explains Manorville resident Nick F. Panico III, a recently unemployed science teacher and fervent weather enthusiast whose curriculum had included a heavy portion of instruction about hurricanes.

“A lot of people view that as a major hurricane,” Panico explains. “It was only a Category 1.”

Panico has experienced four hurricanes firsthand, some by circumstance, others by choice, the latter including Katrina. He was 8 years old when Gloria hit, and remembers having to evacuate his Mastic Beach home. He also vividly remembers being without power for 10 days.

In 1991, Hurricane Bob brushed the eastern tip of Long Island. Even though Bob did not make landfall, the National Hurricane Center recognizes it as a Category 1 hurricane for Eastern Suffolk, as the area did have hurricane conditions. Panico was also forced to evacuate his home for this storm, too.

In 2005, Panico’s passion for hurricanes got the best of him, and he drove from Florida, where he had been vacationing, to greet Katrina. He arrived in northern Mississippi early Sunday morning, and found a local school to ride the storm out. The devastation he saw was colossal.

Many of those images, as well as photos from previous storms—including a collection ofnewspaper covers and photographsfrom the aftermath of the Long Island Express—adorn thewebsiteof another hurricane enthusiast,Scott Mandia, a professor of physical sciences at Suffolk County Community College.

The worst-case scenario for Long Island would be a fast-moving northward moving hurricane of Category 3 or 4 strength striking at astronomical high tide, much like the one in 1938, he warns.

“The worst result will not be day one but will be the weeks or months afterward, where roadways may be blocked by felled trees and other debris and widespread prolonged power outages,” he says, echoing the words of Williams and Levy that it would be such a storm’s aftermath where the real difficulties would begin.

According to Mandia, who has conducted extensive research into the “what ifs” of a Long Island hurricane, the probabilities of LI and the New York Metro region being slammed with ferocious storms in 2010 are two times greater than in previous years. For starters, his data indicates there is a 6 percent chance New York City and Long Island will be hit with a hurricane this season, double the normal value. Also doubled is the probability New York City and Long Island will be hit with a Category 3 or higher hurricane.

“We can expect a hurricane for Long Island and New England every 9 to 10 years, so we’re overdue just for a hurricane, and we’re also overdue now for a major hurricane,” adds Panico.

According to the National Weather Service, roughly every 70 years, Nassau and Suffolk counties should be hit by a Category 3 storm.

The physics of the New York City/Long Island area also make it more vulnerable, adding to the impossibility of a total evacuation. Bridges in the region, such as the Verrazano and George Washington, would have to be shut down early because they are up so high that these structures would experience hurricane force winds first, according to a 1990 study by the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers.

If a major hurricane were to hit, a computerized storm surge prediction model developed by FEMA and the National Weather Service calledSLOSH(Sea, Lake, and Overland Surge from Hurricanes) foretells thatJohn F. Kennedy International Airportwould be under 20 feet of water and sea water would pour through the Holland and Brooklyn-Battery tunnels and into the city’s subways throughout lower Manhattan.

Based on the most recent storm surge maps for Nassau and Suffolk counties, as well as Mandia’s research, a Category 1 hurricane would cause both shores of the North and South Forks to be inundated with water. Montauk Point would be completely cut off from the rest of the South Fork. During a Category 3 hurricane, Montauk Highway would be covered by water, as would most of the two forks. Residents living south of Sunrise Highway would be forced to evacuate their homes.

A Category 4 hurricane, says Mandia, could produce storm surges as high as 29 feet in Amityville Harbor and 24 to 28 feet in Atlantic Beach and Long Beach, South Oyster Bay, Middle Bay and East Bay areas.

Panico points out another chilling thought: As prepared as emergency officials are, and as many improvements there have been in recent years (such as more precise flood maps, etc.), no one’s 100 percent sure how effective they truly are.

“The emergency planning has gotten their act together in the past five or 10 years—but it’s never been tested,” Panico says, soberly.

He fears the true height of a storm surge would be greater than predicted and that some shelters themselves may be at risk. He also worries additionally about the sustainability of North Shore power plants.

Nassau’s Callahan tells the Press water treatment facilities—such as thetroubled Cedar Creek sewage plant in Wantagh—would also be at risk.

Some believe high winds won’t do too much damage to Long Island’s housing stock because houses here are built to withstand snow loads and hence are heavier than structures in Florida. Callahan insists, however, that until the state adopted a more stringent building code in 2003, houses didn’t have to withstand more than a 74 mph wind, noting that Gloria was only a Category 1 storm when it made land with 85 mph sustained winds. A Category 3 could blow roofs off from the inside.

Long before the winds reach gale force, the Long Island Rail Road will shut down to preserve equipment. Crossing gates will be removed, and power turned off. The Far Rockaway and Long Beach lines will be closed.

“You’re not going to have a track or signal gang out in the middle of gale force-plus winds that are potentially hurricane strength,” says Mike Charles, an LIRR spokesman. “So you have to batten down the hatches, so to speak, several days ahead of time.”

The Red Cross has about 1,800 volunteers trained for this emergency. They would oversee the shelters.

New York State Office of Emergency Management's tidal surge map for Long Island.

“It’s just a matter of getting our volunteers there, popping the locks and opening for business,” says Sam Kille, a spokesman for the Nassau chapter of theAmerican Red Cross.

“When winds hit 55 miles per hour, law enforcement is going to be pulled off the roads, and bridges are going to be closed,” says Kille, “so the time to take action is while the sun is still shining before the rains and the winds kick in. We worry about people not listening and waiting until the last minute.”

About 24 hours before the storm would make landfall, 500 National Guard troops would go on active duty. There are also about 700 cadets from theMerchant Marine Academyready to assist. TheNew York State Department of Transportationhas about 400 maintenance crew members on hand for its 5,300 miles of roadways, with another 500 personnel to assist in the effort.

National Grid, in conjunction with LIPA, will draw upon its crews throughout New England to aid in restoring power. But they know from past storms that the process could take weeks. Their prediction is that a Category 3 storm could leave some Long Islanders in the dark for 30 days.

“We all love our tree-lined streets until a hurricane comes!” surmises Vanessa Baird-Streeter, a LIPA spokeswoman.

Towns and other local municipalities have also been preparing. Hempstead and Brookhaven have been gearing up for months in preparation of this potentially devastating hurricane season.

“We’re as prepared as a municipality can be,” saysHempstead Townspokesman Mike Deery. During hurricane season, he says, “we are constantly monitoring the weather.” This year the town has set up a debris-management system to cope with the aftermath of the storm, by moving downed trees, etc., to town and county property.

“Nobody knows what to expect,” explains Eileen Verity, coordinator of emergency preparedness atCatholic Charities, “Long Island could essentially be cut off from the mainland.”

Her organization will be taking care of those people with special needs, and ideally moving them to one of two locations,Holy Trinity High Schoolin Hicksville andKellenberg Memorial High Schoolin Uniondale, which can handle about 1,500 people. Sometimes they won’t want to go, and they can’t be forced. She says they’ll try to start moving this population about 96 hours in advance of the storm, but she knows that is “not going to happen.

“I believe in paying attention to the warnings,” Verity says. “If they say it’s going to hit in four days, I start thinking about it hitting in four days. I don’t say, ‘It’s not going to hit, it’s not going to hit!’ When you hear the warnings, you listen. Don’t blow them off.”

Long Islanders have seen what Katrina and other big storms have done to people down South, and we’ve been through some bad ones up here, too. But do we ever learn?

“No, we never do!” remarks formerBabylon TownSupervisor Rich Schaffer. “We never do.”

Schaffer’s point is one shared by weather experts, public officials and first responders.

“I think there’s an attitude problem among Long Islanders especially: ‘We’re in New York, nothing is going to happen to us, this is not Florida, this is not the West,’” cautions Beverly Poppel, vice president of Locust Valley-basedPetSafe Coalition, a network of public and private organizations working to ensure others in the path of severe storms—animals—are also safe when faced with disaster.

Panico agrees, and believes many Long Islanders would scoff at evacuation: “The population here doesn’t have a true understanding of a major hurricane and what can occur from that.”

“Apathy by the public is a tough nut to crack,” says Mandia. “If people heed the warnings, there should be no reason that anybody loses their life, even in a major hurricane.”

After seeing first-hand the destruction left by Hurricane Hugo in Florida in 1989, Coch began sounding the alarm that New York is overdue. He has little sympathy for those who built homes in harm’s way.
He invokes the fate of Hog Island: “When you stick your tongue out at Mother Nature, she takes care of you.”

Harsh Reality

Whether the next hurricane to hit LI zigs or zags east or west upon landfall, precisely where the storm rolls ashore makes little difference, since erosion will likely be seen across all ocean beaches. Which seaside communities will suffer storm surges that wash waves over the dunes and sweep homes away is the million-dollar question.

Countless houses caught in path of past big storms now call the bottom of the Great South Bay or Atlantic Ocean home. More than 1,000 LI residences were said to be destroyed in the ’38 storm, including more than 500 on Fire Island, 29 in Oak Beach and the rest in the Hamptons and Montauk. The “Ash Wednesday” nor’easter of ’62 washed away 170 South Shore homes. A series of nor’easters in late ’92 and early ’93 destroyed 66 homes on Fire Island as well as 190 of 240 homes on the western tip of Westhampton Island that later became known as the Village of Westhampton Dunes.

Those figures don’t include the houses that were lost a handful at a time during intermittent storms. But anyone who can afford a home with an ocean view knows the price is a possible evacuation order when the inevitable Big One sets its sights on LI.

 “Every year they say this is it,” says Gary Vegliante, longtime mayor of Westhampton Dunes, a village that has rebuilt itself to nearly 300 homes after almost being wiped off the map for the second time—the area lay claim to the highest number of lives and houses lost in ’38, too. “There’s only so much preparation you can do, then you gotta buckle down.”

Risky living or not, barrier beach dwellers are cognizant of the threat they face and understand their contingency plans are even more strict as a result.

“It isn’t like the old days where we had to go out and knock on everyone’s doors,” says Gil Hanse, an emergency preparedness coordinator for Town of Babylon, where the hamlets of Oak Beach and Gilgo on the eastern tip of Jones Beach Island would be at risk. For such remote regions, reverse 911 comes in handy—the aforementioned ability for police and emergency responders to send out mass notifications to entire towns and villages at once.

If push comes to shove in theCity of Long Beach, fire and police crews will also conduct old-fashioned roving loudspeaker announcements if there is a call to evacuate.

“There’s no Red Cross in the city, so you really have to get out,” says Mary Giambalvo, spokeswoman for the city, noting that complacency can be an issue since it has been more than two decades since an evacuation there.

For all the logistical headaches involved in protecting people to these eastern and western barrier islands, it is the one at LI’s midpoint backed by the Great South Bay—by far the South Shore’s largest bay—Fire Island, that poses the greatest challenge.

Fire Island requires local firefighters go door-to-door to ensure no one is left behind to fend for themselves. Since there are no cars allowed, except for the few residents with four-wheel drive permits, almost everyone gets off the same way they got on: via ferry.

It is a time consuming, tedious task. Local cops and firefighters don’t leave until they are sure everyone is out.

“You don’t want to be stuck on Fire Island without any help,” says Ian Levine, spokesman for theOcean Beach Fire Department, the island’s largest firefighter and EMS service. “We’re very narrow, we’re only two blocks wide at most parts,” Levine adds, suggesting the strong possibility of a breach in the island the next time a big storm comes to town.

While the issues facing the South Shore barrier islands appear perilous, few have it as bad as Montauk, the easternmost tip of the South Fork that juts out into the ocean and gets caught in nearly every storm that passes by as a result.

“It’s very hard to evacuate an area like this if you had to get out,” saysSuffolk County Legis. Jay Schneiderman(I-Montauk), who runs Breakers Motel in the hamlet that colloquially refers to itself as “The End.”

With traffic that bottlenecks on Route 27 even when the weather is perfect, ordering everyone to leave Montauk at the same time would prove daunting, which is why storm plans typically call for residents to head to higher ground or a shelter. Should a storm knock out power, water would be cut off as well, because many homes in the area operate on private wells and are not hooked up to the public water system.

But Montauk has seen worse. After all, it briefly was an island in ’38 after the ocean breached Napeague Harbor.

Regardless if Earl, Fiona or any hurricane strikes our shores, Long Island’s emergency management personnel, such as Suffolk’s OEM Commissioner Williams, will be planning, strategizing, preparing.

“We’ve been holding drills and holding drills and holding drills, and no one wants the hurricane to come, and I’ll be the first to admit—there’s going to be some bumps in the road, because there always are—but, that’s the reason why we do these drills,” he says. “I hope it doesn’t come. But we’re kicking everything into place. And if this one doesn’t come or the one comes next week, we’re even more ready for that one.”

Emergency Go-Kits

In the event of a hurricane WATCH or WARNING, put these items into a portable Go-Kit—such as a hands-free backpack or duffel bag—or a container, in case you need to evacuate—with enough supplies for everyone in your household for FIVE days:

Personal Go-Kit

• First aid kit. Pack a “how to” guide as well.
• Medications. Essential prescription, nonprescription items & medical info
• Battery-powered flashlight and radio (or crank radio), extra batteries and a 12-hour glow stick.
• Clothing. A change of clothes, plus rainwear, sturdy shoes, protective gloves
• Personal items. Eye glasses, personal care items, & comfort items.
• Important document copies in a waterproof container
• Items for infants, elderly, pets or loved ones with special needs

Pet Go-Kit

• Your pets’ names
• Your name, address, phone, cell number
• Emergency contact – friend or family
• Your veterinarian’s name, contact info
• Medical records and medications
• Specific care instructions and behavioral problems
• First aid kit
• Current photos
• Sturdy leash with collar or harness
• Muzzles, if necessary
• Paper towels for clean-up
• Food (3 days’), manual can opener
• Bottled water, water purification tablets
• Bowls, toys and other comfort items
• Treats, brushes, combs
• Newspapers and plastic trash bags for handling waste

For more information, visit theNassau County Pet Safe Coalition website(Source: Nassau County OEM)

Emergency Contacts

For flood maps, evacuation routes, or to plug in your address and learn where the closest emergency shelters are for your family, contact:

Nassau Office of Emergency Management 516-573-0636

Suffolk Office of Emergency Management 631-852-4900

NYS Office of Emergency Management State Emergency Coordination Center

24 hours: 518-457-2200

FEMA 1-800-621-FEMA (3362)

Hurricane and Disaster Preparedness Get a Kit. Make a plan. Be informed.

The Great Hurricane Blowout